صحافة بلادي صحيفة إلكترونية مغاربية متجددة على مدار الساعة تعنى بشؤون المغرب الجزائر ليبيا موريتانيا تونس
The debate over the possibility of Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani running for a third term has returned to the forefront, coinciding with the country approaching the post-rule phase, in light of the absence of a clear personality capable of emerging as a successor within the majority camp.
Although Al-Ghazouani has not announced any desire to run for an additional term, the continued demands calling for his stay raise a wide debate about the future of the transfer of power and respect for constitutional rules.
Observers believe that what is more important than the issue of the third mission is the nature of the political phase that will follow Ghazwani, and the extent to which the current majority is able to maintain its cohesion after he leaves power, as well as the identity of the personality who may enjoy the support of the regime and influential circles in the Mauritanian political scene.
In parallel with this internal debate, Moroccan-Mauritanian relations and the Sahara issue emerge as among the most prominent files that may determine the features of President Ghazouani’s regional legacy. During his reign, Nouakchott adopted a policy based on what is described as “positive neutrality,” maintaining balanced relations with both Morocco and Algeria, and avoiding direct involvement in the conflict over the Sahara.
Hassan Indah Al-Kihal, one of the notables of the southern tribes, believes that the rapid regional and international transformations, in addition to the developments in the Sahara file, may push Mauritania to reconsider the level of clarity of its position on the Moroccan autonomy proposal. He considered that strengthening cooperation with Morocco serves the economic, security and strategic interests of Mauritania, given the geographical proximity and intertwined interests between the two countries.
Regarding internal affairs, Al-Kihal ruled out the existence of clear indications of an actual project for a third term for Al-Ghazouani, stressing that the fact that some votes continue to demand it does not necessarily mean that the president will adopt this option. On the other hand, he indicated that attention is turning to the post-Ghazouani stage, speaking about the emergence of names close to government circles, including Interior Minister Mohamed Ahmed Ould Mohamed Lamine Ould Lahouirthi, as one of the names that may be present in the discussion of political succession.
For his part, the Mauritanian journalist interested in Maghreb affairs, Sheikh Ahmed Amin, believes that Al-Ghazouani succeeded, during the years of his rule, in maintaining a delicate balance between Rabat and Algeria, taking advantage of Mauritania’s sensitive geographical and political location. However, the transformations that the region has witnessed, and the strengthening of the Moroccan presence in Africa, in addition to developments related to the Sahara issue, may force Nouakchott to recalibrate its foreign policy.
Sheikh Ahmed believes that any greater Mauritanian rapprochement with the Moroccan position on autonomy will not necessarily mean Nouakchott abandoning its relations with Algeria or turning it into a direct party to the conflict, but rather it could take place within the framework of supporting a realistic political solution, while maintaining channels of communication with the various parties.
Thus, the next stage in Mauritania appears to be governed by two parallel entitlements: the first is internal political related to the transfer of power and the future transfer of power, and the second is regional related to Nouakchott’s position in the changing balance between Morocco and Algeria and the future of its position on the Sahara issue.
The most prominent question remains: Will Ghazouani leave power within the framework of a clear constitutional transition, and whether he will leave behind Mauritanian policy towards the Sahara issue as it is, or will he push at the end of his term towards a clearer position closer to the Moroccan initiative for autonomy?
Source:My press
