صحافة بلادي صحيفة إلكترونية مغاربية متجددة على مدار الساعة تعنى بشؤون المغرب الجزائر ليبيا موريتانيا تونس
Tunisia –Tunisian media reports stated that the ongoing war in the Middle East may have potential economic repercussions for Tunisia, in light of fluctuations in energy prices and their impact on financial and economic indicators.
Media outlets quoted the economist and university professorReda Al-ShakandaliHe said that the rise in oil prices represents one of the most important factors affecting the Tunisian economy, explaining that every dollar exceeds the hypothesis approved in Tunisia’s budget for the year 2026, which is specified in$63.3 per barrelAdds like160 million dinarsof additional costs to the state budget, and every increase of $10 may raise the inflation rate between0.3 and 0.5 percentage points.
According to data reported by media reports, the Tunisian economy may also be affected by a decline in remittances from Tunisians residing abroad, especially in the Gulf countries and Europe, as a result of the slowdown in economic activity and the rise in global inflation, which in turn may be reflected in the volume of financial transfers.
Possible scenarios
Economic analyzes indicate several possible scenarios for the impact of the crisis:
- The first scenario (currently the closest):With the price of oil reaching about$84.5The Tunisian budget deficit may increase by approximately1.6 billion dinarsIt may reach3 billion dinars, with an increase in inflation up to0.6 percentage points.
- Second scenario:If the price of oil exceeds100 dollarsAs a result of supply disruptions or tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the budget may incur additional costs ranging from4 and 6 billion dinarsWith inflation rising between0.75 and 1 percentage point.
- Third scenario:If the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed or major oil facilities in the Gulf are targeted, Tunisia may face an oil shock similar to my crisis1973 and 2008, which may raise the budget deficit to about9 billion dinarsWith inflation increasing by approximately1.7 percentage points.
- Fourth scenario (most dangerous):If the conflict expands into a broader international confrontation, the additional cost to the state budget may reach14 billion dinarsWith inflation rising by about2.6 percentage pointsThis may impose exceptional financial measures.
These data highlight, according to media reports, the extent of the interrelation between global geopolitical crises and the stability of regional economies, especially in energy-importing countries.
Source:“My press”
