صحافة بلادي صحيفة إلكترونية مغاربية متجددة على مدار الساعة تعنى بشؤون المغرب الجزائر ليبيا موريتانيا تونس
International – Despite the decline in oil prices following the announcement of a framework to end the war between Iran and the United States, estimates by energy companies and market experts confirm that the global oil market will not quickly return to pre-war levels, due to profound disruptions in production, shipping, insurance, and supply chains, the effects of which are expected to last for months and perhaps exceed a full year.
Brent crude contracts fell below $80 per barrel today, Wednesday, after statements by US President Donald Trump regarding the end of the war and the resumption of the flow of oil. However, shipping and energy companies did not consider this sufficient to restore shipping traffic normally, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of seaborne oil trade passes and about a fifth of global oil and gas consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan believes that the return of balance may take about a year or more, due to accumulated bottlenecks in storage, inventories, fleets and supply chains, while shipping companies are still cautious waiting for the agreement to be translated on the ground, with insurance premiums continuing to rise to about 7.5% of the value of the ship for some tankers, which raises the cost of transportation by millions of dollars per week.
Specialized estimates indicate that the resumption of natural flows requires weeks of maritime calm and a decline in risks, and not just a political declaration to open the strait, at a time when production data confirms that about 10,000 oil wells out of 36,000 in the region were out of service during the war, some of which need technical repair as a result of loss of pressure or mechanical failures.
International financial institutions expect a gradual return to production that may reach 50% during the first months after the truce, with it increasing later, which means a continued partial shortage of supplies despite the decline in prices, especially with the damage to energy facilities, some of which may take years to repair in the natural gas sector.
During the war, markets resorted to withdrawing large quantities of strategic reserves to compensate for the shortage, which led to the depletion of billions of barrels of unproduced or unexported crude, which made the global oil system more vulnerable to any potential new disturbances.
Despite the decline in prices, economists expect the effects of rising energy on inflation rates to continue in the coming months as a result of the cost shifting to food, services and goods, with prices likely to stabilize between $70 and $75 per barrel if the agreement is implemented, without returning to pre-war levels in the near term.
Economic reports warn that restructuring supply routes and reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz may make the oil market more volatile in the long term, while analysts agree that the main challenge is no longer the availability of oil, but rather confidence in the methods of transporting it, a factor that may take many months before it returns to normal.
Source:“My press”
